The Pittsburgh Penguins' 2026-27 season is shaping up to be an intriguing one, with a focus on players who might regress after impressive performances. Here's an analysis of three potential regression candidates, each with their own unique story and challenges.
Justin Brazeau: The Late-Bloomer's Plateau?
Brazeau's journey to the NHL has been a classic tale of a late bloomer. His career-high 17 goals and 34 points this season were a testament to his hard work and talent. However, the concern lies in his recent performance dip. After a strong start, he struggled to maintain his early-season magic, finishing with just five goals and 14 points in the final 40 games. The question arises: is this a sign of his offensive peak? Brazeau's history of late blooming suggests that he might need time to adjust and find his rhythm again. His physical game, size, and sneaky good hands make him a valuable asset, but the risk of regression looms. If he can't recapture his early-season form, a decline to 15-20 goals and 25-30 points might be inevitable, impacting his bottom-six role.
Egor Chinakhov: A Fresh Start, But Will It Pay Off?
Chinakhov's trade to the Penguins from the Columbus Blue Jackets presents an interesting case. The talent is undeniable, and the change of scenery could be beneficial. However, his 17.3 shooting percentage post-trade is a red flag. This is a significant jump from his previous career-high, and it's a statistic that warrants caution. Chinakhov's inconsistency in Columbus is a concern, as he showed top-line potential but struggled to maintain it. The potential for a big year is there, but a step backward is also a possibility. The jury is still out on whether he can build on his post-trade performance and become the top-line player Columbus envisioned.
Bryan Rust: The Aging Star?
Rust's journey from a mid-round draft pick to a consistent top-line player is an inspiring story. His work ethic and development have been remarkable, and he has aged gracefully, approaching 30 goals in his mid-30s. However, the reality of father time looms. Non-star players often face challenges in their mid-30s, and Rust's production might start to slow down. While it's a subjective opinion, the possibility of a decline is a valid consideration. Rust's ability to remain useful despite the age-related regression is a testament to his skill, but the Penguins must prepare for a potential slowdown in his goal-scoring pace.
